EA - Tracking the money flows in forecasting by NunoSempere

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Tracking the money flows in forecasting, published by NunoSempere on November 9, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum.This list of forecasting organizations includes:A brief description of each organizationA monetary estimate of value. This can serve as a rough but hard-to-fake proxy of value. Sometimes this is a flow (e.g., budget per year), and sometimes this is an estimate of total value (e.g., valuation).A more subjective, rough, and verbal estimate of how much value the organization produces.This started as a breadth first evaluation of the forecasting system, and to some extent it still is, i.e., it might be useful to get a rough sense of the ecosystem as a whole. After some discussion on whether very rough evaluations are worth it (a), people who prefer their evaluations to have a high threshold of quality and polish might want to either ignore this post or just pay attention to the monetary estimates.Summary tableNote that the monetary value column has different types of estimates.NameMonetary valuePurposeFlutter Entertainment~$20B (~£18B) market capGamblingKalshi~$30M in VC fundingPrediction marketMetaculus~$6M in grantsForecasting sitePolymarket~$4M in VC fundingPrediction marketCultivate Labs$5M to $80M (estimated valuation)Forecasting platform as a serviceGood Judgment$3M to $50M (estimated valuation)Forecasting consultingManifold Markets~$2M in early stage fundingPlay money prediction marketInsight Prediction—Prediction marketTetlock’s research group$1M to $20M (estimated grant flow)Research groupPredictIt$0.5M to $5M (estimated value)Prediction marketEpoch$2M in grantsResearch group on AI progressSwift Centre$2M in grantsForecasts as a public goodQuantified Uncertainty Research Institute$780k in grantsSoftware and forecasting researchSamotsvety Forecasting$200k to $5M (estimated valuation)Forecasts as a public good, forecasting consultingCzech Priorities—Institutional decision-making using forecastingHedgehog Markets$3.5M in VC fundingPrediction market(crypto)INFERUncertain. Estimated $2M/year in grantsForecasting platformNathan Young$180k in grantsForecasting question creationSage$700k in grantsForecasting researchGlobal Guessing$330k in grantsForecasting journalismSocial Science Prediction PlatformAt least $838k in grantsForecasting in an academic contextAugur$60M crypto market capPrediction marketConfido$190k in grantsForecasting toolingHypermind—Play money prediction marketReplication Markets$150k in forecaster rewardsForecasting experimentPredictionBook—Prediction databaseGnosis$230M crypto market capSmart contracts, including for prediction marketsNameMonetary valuePurposeFlutter Entertainment~$20B (~£18B) market capGamblingKalshi~$30M in VC fundingPrediction marketMetaculus~$6M in grantsForecasting sitePolymarket~$4M in VC fundingPrediction marketCultivate Labs$5M to $80M (estimated valuation)Forecasting platform as a serviceGood Judgment$3M to $50M (estimated valuation)Forecasting consultingManifold Markets~$2M in early stage fundingPlay money prediction marketInsight Prediction—Prediction marketTetlock’s research group$1M to $20M (estimated grant flow)Research groupPredictIt$0.5M to $5M (estimated value)Prediction marketEpoch$2M in grantsResearch group on AI progressSwift Centre$2M in grantsForecasts as a public goodQuantified Uncertainty Research Institute$780k in grantsSoftware and forecasting researchSamotsvety Forecasting$200k to $5M (estimated valuation)Forecasts as a public good, forecasting consultingCzech Priorities—Institutional decision-making using forecastingHedgehog Markets$3.5M in VC fundingPrediction market (crypto)INFERUncertain.Estimated $2M/year in grantsForecasting platformNathan Young$180k in grantsForecasting question creationSage$700k in grantsForecasting researchGlobal Guessing$330k in grantsForecasting journal...