EA - Theory: "WAW might be of higher impact than x-risk prevention based on utilitarianism" by Jens Aslaug

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Theory: "WAW might be of higher impact than x-risk prevention based on utilitarianism", published by Jens Aslaug on September 12, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.SummaryIn the forthcoming post, I will argue why wild animal welfare (WAW) MIGHT be a more pressing cause area than x-risk prevention based on total utilitarianism, even after taking into account longtermism. I will show how you can make the same calculation yourself (checking if you agree) and then outline a rationale for how you could apply this estimation.The scenario of humans outnumbering (wild) animals is improbable, primarily due to the vast number of wildlife and the potential for their spread to space, the perspective of total utilitarianism suggests that human suffering may be deemed negligible. Additionally, because sentient beings originating from Earth can live at least 1034 biological human life-years if we achieve interstellar travel, working on anything that doesn't cause permanent effects is also negligible. Consequently, our paramount concern should be decreasing x-risk or increasing net utilities "permanently". If one is comparatively easier than the other, then that's the superior option.I will outline a formula that can be used to compare x-risk prevention to other cause areas. Subsequently, I will present a variety of arguments to consider for what these numbers might be, so you can make your own estimations. I will argue why it might be possible to create "permanent" changes in net utilities by working on WAW.My estimation showed that WAW is more than twice as effective as x-risk prevention. Due to the high uncertainty of this number, even if you happen to concur with my estimation, I don't see it as strong enough evidence to warrant a career change from one area to the other. However, I do think that this could mean that the areas are closer in impact than many longtermist might think, and therefore if you're a better fit for one of them you should go for that one. Also, you should donate to whichever one is the most funding-constrained.I will also delve into the practical applications of these calculations, should you arrive at a different conclusion than me.(Note that I'm not in any way qualified to make such an analysis. The analysis as a whole and the different parts of the analysis could certainly be made better. Many of the ideas and made-up numbers I'm presenting are my own and therefore may differ greatly from what a more knowledgeable or professional in the field would think. To save time, I will not repeat this during every part of my analysis. I mainly wanted to present the idea of how we can compare x-risk prevention to WAW and other cause areas, in the hope that other people could use the idea (more than the actual estimations) for cause prioritization. I also want this post criticized for my personal use in cause prioritization. So please leave your questions, comments and most of all criticisms of my theory.)(Note regarding s-risk: this analysis is based on comparing working on WAW to working on x-risk. While it does consider s-risks, it does not compare working on s-risks to other causes. However, the analysis could relatively easily be extended/changed to directly compare s-risks to x-risks. To save time and for simplifications, I didn't do this, however, if anyone is interested, I will be happy to discuss or maybe even write a follow-up post regarding this.)IntroWhile I have for a long time been related to EA, I only recently started to consider which cause area is the most effective. As a longtermist and total utilitarian (for the most part), finding the cause that increases utilities (no matter the time or type of sentient being) the most time/cost-effectively is my goal. I got an idea based on a number of things I read, that against the belief of mo...