EA - AI timelines via bioanchors: the debate in one place by Will Aldred

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AI timelines via bioanchors: the debate in one place, published by Will Aldred on July 30, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. I've not yet seen a collection, in one place, of the various summaries, responses, and rebuttals around AI timelines via bioanchors. I attempt to make said collection here. I've bolded and put stars around what I consider to be "core" reading (i.e., what I'd suggest you read first), based primarily on consision but also based on importance, according to me. Note that this collection is not ordered chronologically. Ajeya Cotra "Draft report on AI timelines" (2020) This is the original "bioanchors" report Rohin Shah Rohin's summary of bioanchors Holden Karnofsky Holden's summary of bioanchors "Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors" Drawing from bioanchors as well as other (mostly Open Phil-produced) reports: "AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the 'Experts,' Stand" Grilo and Holm (2022) red-team Holden's "AI Timelines" Eliezer Yudkowsky "Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works" Grant Demaree's summary of this post Rob Bensinger's commentary on this post Scott Alexander "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" Rob Bensinger's beginnings of a reply Daniel Kokotajlo Daniel's comment on bioanchors for the LessWrong 2020 review Matthew Barnett "A comment on Ajeya Cotra's draft report on AI timelines" Metaculus (These community forecasts aren't linked to Ajeya's bioanchors report in the same way as a summary or critique, but they seem relevant to the debate and have been cited in a couple of the above posts.) "Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known" "Date of Artificial General Intelligence" Thanks for listening. To help us out with The Nonlinear Library or to learn more, please visit nonlinear.org.