E226 | The science behind forecasting liabilities and the art of letting them go with Annie Duke, author of “Quit”.

Hard decisions are part of every aspect of our human life. In business, these are what shape the future of a company and what define its success if done right. We often praise the hiring process in a company, as it constitutes a decision based on precise forecasting and analysis. However, we often brush off the equally important decision of letting someone go, as we generally believe it should be done as easily as this: take a  subjective decision, have an end-of-contract meeting, and empty a desk. What we don’t realize is that letting go of an employee should be subject to the same amount of well-thought analysis, as it is as strategic for the company as hiring. Today, on the Melting Pot, we are joined by Annie Duke, an ex-professional poker player and author of two books called “Thinking in bets” and “Quit”. The first makes a parallel between poker and business and covers ways in which we could bring the critical decision-making process from gambling into our entrepreneurial adventure. The second book is a gem that helps us know when to call it quits. More specifically, it helps decision-makers discover the neuroscience behind firing people, and how to do it right. She proposes a precise methodology to know when an employee is not a good fit anymore, and how to let them understand that it is time for them to quit. After earning the title of “The Duchess of Poker”, she now focuses on cognitive-behavioural decision authorship and coaches businesses in making the right decisions in their environment. Listen and download this fascinating episode in which Annie shares the journey that got her into coaching decision-makers and interesting concepts such as loss aversion, and aspects of the human cognitive bias that can affect our forecasting.  In today’s episode: The way our mind works when it comes to quitting thingsThe loss aversion bias in decision makingSpecificity vs. Sensitivity in decision makingThe ‘Thinking in Bets’ book and playing pokerThe role of luck in success Links: Annie Duke's WebsiteQUIT - The Power Of Knowing When To Walk AwayAnnie's Other BooksYoutube ChannelLinkedinTwitter Book recommendations: Phillip E.Tetlock and Dan Gardner- Super ForecastingBrian Christian and Tom Griffiths- Algorithms to Live ByAlex Sangha- The Modern ThinkerMichael J. Mauboussin- The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and InvestingDaniel Kahneman- Thinking Fast and SlowRichard H. Thaler- NudgeKaty Milkman- How to...