The Fog of Tariffs

The big things you need to know:First, earnings sentiment is at an important crossroads, with the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions having fallen to 30%.Second, what we read in S&P 500 earnings call transcripts last week keeps us in the camp that recession is not a foregone conclusion, makes us concerned that any adverse impacts from tariffs may be felt a little later in the year or even next year, and pushes us toward the idea that the consumer is holding up but still hasn’t been unscathed.Third, the idea that investors are rotating out of the US assets into other geographies is supported by recent funds flows data.