E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg Podcast Notes Key Takeaways It’s an end of an era for Big Tech: they’re transitioning from a phase of unfettered growth into their next phase where they must learn to operate like a cash-cow business When the growth engines of Apple and Google slow, other tech companies don’t have to offer competitive compensation, extra benefits, and extravagant workplace environments to compete for talent as they once did “Nobody is talking about a soft landing anymore. In fact, I think we’re all wondering who is flying the plane.” – David Sacks on the Federal Reserve Financial markets have always had a “Fed Put”, which is a level of pain that is reached that forces the Federal Reserve to step into the market and be a buyer of last resort “The investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they’ll have the most asymmetric upside.” – Chamath Palihapitiya The Federal Reserve, in conjunction with the last two administrations, printed $10 trillion over the last couple of years which has caused inflation to soar There is $300T of global debt; if interest rates increase from 0% to 5%, that’s an increase of $15T in annual debt service, which is 18% of global GDP Chamath sympathizes with Friedberg’s concerns over global debt but thinks perpetual bailouts will continue to negate the consequences of rising debt levels The rate-setting process should leverage more of today’s technology; humans setting the rate in quarter-percent increments every couple of weeks seems archaic to Friedberg “If you have these irrational central bankers that are willing to constantly bail people out, you will never get a high-functioning government because the policy is irrelevant.”– Chamath Palihapitiya Europe slept-walked its way into WWI in 1914, which is something David Sacks thinks the United States could be doing today David’s primary gripe inShould America Go All In On Ukraine is the U.S. media’s narrative that “Putin is bluffing”; we cannot know that he is definitely bluffing, and the stakes of being wrong are too high  Wealthy and powerful people in the U.S. might begin to put political pressure on their representatives to resolve the Russia-Ukraine issue because of the strain the conflict has placed on the markets and their portfolios “I think that the markets would have reacted much much more negatively to a nuclear incident three months ago than now, and may not even react as much as we think it would three months from now.” – Chamath Palihapitiya on Sept. 30, 2022Read the full notes @ podcastnotes.org0:00 Bestie intros! 1:36 Big tech starts making cuts, plus what this means for the broader economy and startups 31:09 Global debt numbers, Fed incompetency 54:06 RIP Coolio 1:00:30 Russia / Ukraine update Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-29/meta-announces-hiring-freeze-warns-employees-of-restructuring https://www.google.com/finance/quote/META:NASDAQ https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GOOG:NASDAQ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/stanley-druckenmiller-sees-hard-landing-in-2023-with-a-possible-deeper-recession-than-many-expect.html https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NFLX:NASDAQ https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/if-youre-going-to-build-something-from-scratch-this-might-be-as-good-a-time-as-in-a-decade https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/05/11/billionaire-investor-druckenmiller-blasts-feds-radical-stimulus-policy-warns-it-risks-stock-bubble-blowing-up https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/cnbc-transcript-duquesne-family-office-chairman-ceo-stanley-druckenmiller-speaks-with-cnbcs-joe-kernen-live-during-the-cnbc-delivering-alpha-conference-today.html https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=1M https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemp-per-job-opening.htm https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-nation-of-quitters-great-enabling-exodus-working-age-men-parents-stimulus-covid-quit-retirement-bohemian-videogame-11664112795 https://goop.com/subscribe https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-host-kremlin-ceremony-annexing-parts-ukraine-2022-09-29 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-says-ukraine-applying-nato-membership-2022-09-30 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/qa-nord-stream-gas-sabotage-whos-being-blamed-why-2022-09-30 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/former-polish-foreign-minister-thanks-us-for-damaging-nord-stream-pipeline/2696530 https://www.theamericanconservative.com/should-america-go-all-in-on-ukraine