The Possibility of a Global Recession with Colleen Ambrose
Inflation has been rising steadily since the beginning of the year and is now at a level considered concerning by many economists. And while the Fed has been raising interest rates to keep inflation in check, it is becoming increasingly difficult. With inflation remaining stubbornly high, many believe a recession is becoming increasingly likely. What does this mean for the fixed-income market and the bond market? In this episode, Rusty and Robyn talk with Colleen Ambrose, Director of Fixed Income Markets at Capital Group. Colleen has 35 years of industry experience and has been with Capital Group for two years. Before joining Capital Group, Colleen was a portfolio manager at Bank of America. Before that, she was a fixed-income client portfolio manager at American Century Investments. Colleen holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is a member of the CFA Institute, the CFA Society of Chicago, and Women Investment Professionals. Colleen talks with Rusty and Robyn about her outlook for fixed income, the bond market, and the headwinds in the economy, including inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and a potential recession. Key Takeaways [02:34] - Colleen's professional background and what she does at Capital Group. [04:29] - What Women Investment Professionals is all about. [05:27] - Colleen's advice to investors in light of global financial market events. [07:54] - Capital Group's outlook on inflation. [09:32] - Colleen's thoughts on the Federal Reserve's inflation policy. [10:24] - What Capital Group has to say about recession risk. [11:46] - The impact of geopolitical risks on the fixed-income market. [13:17] - How the fixed income bear market will end. [14:59] - Colleen's view on long-term interest rates. [15:46] - What Capital Group thinks about investment grade bonds, high yield bonds, emerging markets, and debt. [17:21] - Why investors should consider fixed-income assets during market volatility. [19:30] - Colleen's personal investment strategy. [20:28] - How Colleen maintains her physical and mental health to perform at her best. [21:29] - The lessons Colleen learned from her mentors. [22:35] - Colleen's recommendation for content. Quotes [04:05] - "I love being that point person between our investment team and the end user clients to help them optimize what they're doing with their fixed income. Fixed income can be archaic and complex to understand. I like putting it in user-friendly terms to help people understand the messaging and move forward the right way." ~ Colleen Ambrose [10:39] - "We're not there yet. But 2023 is likely to see a recession, potentially a global recession. The U.S. will be slowing from the impact of Federal Reserve hikes and higher inflation. In terms of the employment landscape, we start to see layoffs in the economy that could impact things." ~ Colleen Ambrose [22:01] - "In the real world, you learn so much by doing. I equate learning about the bond market or financial markets to being plopped down in the middle of a foreign country, not knowing the language. And every day, you have to get up and learn the language." ~ Colleen Ambrose Links Colleen Ambrose Capital Group Walking On Sunshine Women Investment Professionals Bloomberg The Wall Street Journal The Economist Connect with our hosts Rusty Vanneman Robyn Murray Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts 2145-OPS-11/8/2022