The UK Economy – Stick or Twist?
The UK economy continues to dominate conversations across the country in the wake of the transition to a higher interest rate environment, rising cost of living pressures, an increased focus on unemployment figures and shifts in the labour market. In a bid to unpick the current economic position and help us understand what it all means for the intermediary mortgage market, the latest season of Barclays award-winning Mortgage Insider Podcast kicks off with host and property expert Phil Spencer being joined by regular guest and Chief Investment Officer, Barclays Private Bank & Wealth Management, Will Hobbs. In his own unique style, Will highlights the importance attached to positive real wage growth, how historic interest rate conditions relate to the current economic climate and the ongoing performance of European and US markets. He also tackles the question of whether interest rates have peaked and outlines why he remains so optimistic about UK economic conditions. This in-depth discussion offers some exclusive insights and indicators into what mortgage brokers should, and shouldn’t, be paying attention to and how to avoid the doom narrative around the UK economy. This episode was recorded on 24th October 2023. It’s a Fresh Air Production for Barclays created by Julie-Anna Needham and Annie Day with Helen Carter from Barclays. References Jeremy Hunt said the UK’s financial situation is definitely worse than in spring, in an interview with Sky News. Latest ONS data on owner-occupied houses with mortgages available here. Excess savings are clustered in the top 40% of households, according to this speech by economist Gerjan Vlieghe based on data from NMG Consulting and Bank of England calculations. Latest ONS data on household savings available here. Eight Centuries of global real interest rates by Paul Schmelzing available to read here. Information on average base rates available here using data from the Bank of England. Information on business confidence in the UK available here. Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts a moderate recession in 2024 here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.