Macro Strategy Views Podcast: The shocks and the Nordics

In our weekly podcast Macro Strategy Views, we focus on topical macro and market themes targeting investors and trading corporates. Today, we focus on US interest rates, Italy and oil prices. We discuss how these shocks influence our views on the Nordics. Thomas Harr Global Head of FI&C Research chairs today’s podcast and our Head of FX Research Christin Kyrme Tuxen joins him. In our view, the US fiscal stimulus’s positive impact on growth will be as significant in FY 2019 as it has been in 2018. If we do not get inflation in the US now, we believe we will never get it. The EU’s comments on Friday support our view that the EU will give a negative opinion on Italy if it does not revise its budget before 15 October. We see a significant risk that Italy will face a debt crisis over coming years but we believe the probability of Italexit remains very low. We are USD bulls because of US strength but expect limited contagion to the Nordics from Italian debt worries.