[Linkpost] “LLMs might already be conscious” by MichaelDickens

This is a link post. Among people who have thought about LLM consciousness, a common belief is something like LLMs might be conscious soon, but they aren't yet. How sure are we that they aren't conscious already? I made a quick list of arguments for/against LLM consciousness, and it seems to me that high confidence in non-consciousness is not justified. I don't feel comfortable assigning less than a 10% chance to LLM consciousness, and I believe a 1% chance is unreasonably confident. But I am interested in hearing arguments I may have missed. For context, I lean toward the computational theory of consciousness, but I also think it's reasonable to have high uncertainty about which theory of consciousness is correct. Behavioral evidence Pro: LLMs have passed the Turing test. If you have a black box containing either a human or an LLM, and [...] ---Outline:(00:56) Behavioral evidence(02:23) Architectural evidence(03:06) Other evidence(03:19) My synthesis of the evidence(04:12) What will change with future AIs?(04:33) On LLM welfare--- First published: July 5th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WrLMQjLDbT8nnowGB/untitled-draft-suvg Linkpost URL:https://mdickens.me/2025/07/05/LLMs_might_already_be_conscious/ --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.