“Diversify Your Moral Risk Portfolio” by Bentham’s Bulldog

Crosspost of my blog. Lots of people have two conflicting desires: Do the most good. Make sure you do some good. These are in conflict. Sometimes the thing that does the most good in expectation has a low chance of doing any good. If you give a lot of money to shrimp, for example, there's about a 50% chance you’re wasting your money if it turns out that shrimp aren’t conscious. Similarly, if you take Pascal's wager, and give money to groups that effectively promote the religion you think is most likely to be true, there's a non-trivial chance that you’re not doing any good at all! And the same thing is true of other speculative proposals for improving the world—trying to become a billionaire, giving to Longtermist organizations that safeguard the future, and so on. As it happens, I don’t think this attempt to make sure [...] --- First published: September 28th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/eB9weiLvPo7sKcLZH/diversify-your-moral-risk-portfolio --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.