Writing the first draft of financial history with Byrne Hobart

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from scratch.–Full transcript here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/writing-history-byrne-hobart/ –Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:The Diff https://www.thediff.co/Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/ Pre-order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation https://www.amazon.com/Boom-Bubbles-Stagnation-Byrne-Hobart/dp/1953953476 Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/Byrne's podcast The Riff: https://podcasts.apple.com/id1716646486Referenced:The Railway Mania of 1860 Paper by Andrew Odlyzko https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4006745 Seeing Like a State by James C. Scott https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Like-State-Certain-Condition/dp/0300078153The Dead Pledge by Judge Earl Glock https://www.amazon.com/Dead-Pledge-Mortgage-1913-1939-Capitalism/dp/0231192533The Oral History of Travel’s Greatest Acquisition Bookings.com https://skift.com/oral-history-of-booking-acquisition/–Twitter:@patio11@byrnehobart–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) The 30-year mortgage is an intrinsically toxic product(04:46) Young households are the socially optimal holders of equities risk(10:19) The structure of private equity returns(14:18) Sponsor: Check(15:32) Meta-analysis of the finance newsletter space(19:54) Byrne’s aspirations for The Diff(25:01) The origins of names(27:19) The epistemics of a hedge fund(34:26) Venture capital vs hedge funds(38:13) Understanding scrapers(41:20) How to learn about an industry from scratch(45:37) The business of online travel agencies(49:21) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.