Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.–Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/–Sponsor: This podcast is sponsored by Check, the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.–Links:Manifold https://manifold.markets/ Bits About Money https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/–Twitter:@patio11@ManifoldMarkets–Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:26) Understanding prediction markets(02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance(06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets(10:52) User-created markets and community practices(15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters(18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold(23:07) Sponsor: Check(24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system(26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency(27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold(28:57) Social aspects of market participation(32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory(34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets(38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market(42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes(46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets(49:32) The importance of market optics(50:44) Wrap–Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.